Module

Causal Inference in Social Sciences

Schedule:

  • 24 July (09:30 – 15:30)
  • 25 July (09:30 – 15:30)

About

We often want to know the relationship between cause and effect. Almost every domain has significant causal research questions that can drive decision-making. But, what exactly is causation and how can it be determined whether an observed relationship is truly causal? This course will teach you the fundamentals of how to reason about causality and make causal determinations using empirical data. It will begin by introducing the counterfactual framework of causal inference and then discuss a variety of approaches, starting with the most basic experimental designs to more complex observational methods, for making inferences about causal relationships from the data. For each approach, we will discuss the necessary assumptions that a researcher needs to make about the process that generated the data, how to assess whether these assumptions are reasonable, and finally how to interpret the quantity being estimated.

This course will involve a combination of lectures, lab sections and problem sets. Lectures will focus on introducing the core theoretical concepts being taught in this course. Lab sections will emphasize application and discuss how to implement various causal inference techniques with real data sets. Problem sets will contain a mixture of both theoretical and applied questions and serve as a way of reinforcing key concepts and allowing student to assess their progress and understanding throughout the course.

As a part of this course, you will be introduced to statistical programming using the R programming language. This is a free and open source language for statistical computing that is used extensively for data analysis in both academia and industry. No prior experience in programming is necessary and we recognize that students will come in with a variety of backgrounds and different levels of experience in programming. This course is designed to emphasize learning by doing and will teach statistical programming with the aim of preparing students to analyze actual data.

Software Requirement

No specific software is required.

Instructors

Afrimadona

UPN Veteran Jakarta and Populi Center


Afrimadona, Ph.D. teaches Statistics for Political Analysis and International Security and Strategic Studies at Indonesian International Islamic University. Currently, he is also the Executive Director of Populi Center, a well-known opinion survey agency in Jakarta. He holds a master’s degree from the Australian National University and a Ph.D. degree from the Northern Illinois University with a specialization in International Relations and Political Behaviors. He has a wide interest in international relations theory, comparative political economy, and research methods (applied econometrics/quantitative methods). His publications have appeared in various journals including Contemporary Politics, Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, Nonproliferation Review, Open Journal of Political Science, and Southeast Asia Research (forthcoming). He also published several book chapters on International Relations and political behavior. He can be reached at afrimadona@uiii.ac.id.